‘Deft diplomatic hand crucial’

Like the rest of the world Indians are listening to the rising decibel levels of war drums with the Middle East blaze turning into an inferno and an IsraelIran war lsquoimminentrsquo Amidst this the Sheikh Hasina BangladeshtoDelhi flight threw us for a loop This will have serious repercussions on South Asiarsquos stability and Indiarsquos security India is getting surrounded by States that are proChinaDark daysWe have a very gloomy picture globally There are several scenarios which point to the fact that if not today or tomorrow as some predictions go World War III is never far away We have the very real possibility of a Taiwan vs China conflict which will affect all in the region at once Xi Jinping the Chinese premier would like to see this happen there is no doubt about that Do not take your eyes off this conflict zone which is becoming more volatile Remember the UkraineRussia war and that we have 32 NATO countries against Russia and that is roiling the world tooIsrael HamasI come to the IsraelIran scenario where it is evident that Israel cannot defend itself alone It needs support like from the USA for ammunition which it asked for earlier as it fought against Hamas Having said that one can conclude that Israel has controlled Hamas to a very large extent in this war to the extent that Hamas cannot invade Israel It has decimated Hamas though Israel will not admit that as it needs to control Gaza Now the attacks will come from Golan Heights and Lebanon with Israel well poised to counter theseHybrid warsWhat we are looking at is commonly termed unconventional warfare I prefer to call it a lsquohybrid warrsquo This means no one method is being used in these conflicts We have aerial platforms for war maritime vessels are seajacked by the Houthis nonState actors are being used as proxies proxy wars are being fought There is the threat of missiles as they fly over different regions It is a potent mix and that is where the danger lies One of these ballistic missiles can one day be fitted with a nuclear warhead North Korea had fired a missile some months ago which landed outside Japanrsquos exclusive economic zone It will take one irresponsible actmdasha missile targeting a city which will prove to be the spark to the powder keg which is our world right nowDeft diplomacyMeanwhile we cannot overlook the economic aspect We are seeing the decline of the USA both economically and militarily China in fact is watching this with a great deal of patience and is now an emerging economic and military superpowerThis brings us to India which has to play a very deft diplomatic card By that I mean there are several balancing acts we must do We have our friendship with Russia a country which has suffered a great deal economically in this war We are prodded time and again by the USA to look at that friendship during this time of the RussiaUkraine war Then we have good relations with both Israel and Iran We buy oil from Iran despite sanctions We cannot afford to antagonise Iran because of the Chabahar Port as a counter to Gwadar Port part of the ChinaPakistan economic corridor We just need to be deft as I said instead of going around pronouncing to some country or the other to stop war or hostilitiesNeed statesmenWhat the world needs most are real statesmen which are absent right now To some extent I would agree with Donald Trump who has recognised that the USA will decline economically and proclaimed that ldquohe will stop the warrdquo Current wars need to stop and bigger conflicts are to be avoided as there are other lsquoconflictsrsquo or I could call them lsquoproblemsrsquo that need money and attention like global poverty health and environmental issues Yet for those to be addressed we need global leaders of stature not the current pygmies and dwarfs behaving like heads of small districts fighting like mad and pushing our increasingly fragile world to the brinkAs told to Hemal AsharCol Utkarsh Rathore retd was commissioned into the Indian Army in 1980 He commanded the 17 Maratha Light Infantry battalion during Operation Parakram mobilisation of which took place after the Indian Parliament terror attack Send your feedback to mailbagmiddaycom