Lok Sabha elections 2024: Will it be win-win-win in Tamil Nadu?

Like a good Test match all three results are possible as Tamil Nadu votes for the Lok Sabha on Friday The DMK alliance which is in the impossible position of defending a near100 per cent record from 2019 of winning 38 of the 39 seats will grudgingly accept anything above 30 seats this time The ADMK which is at a crossroads in terms of leadership will be happy if it can win doubledigit seats And the BJP which has managed not more than 5 per cent vote share in the state will be happy if it crosses 10 per cent even if it does not yield any winsPrime Minister Narendra Modi waves to supporters PicXAs campaigning draws to a close here is where the biggies in the southern state stand By far the biggest achievement of K Annamalaimdashappointed in July 2021 as the youngest state presidentmdashis that the BJP is no more a bad word in Tamil Nadu with the GoBackModi trend seeing a downturn at least among some Probably for the first time in 10 years there seems to be no antiModi wave This seems to have been acknowledged by the partyrsquos super bosses who have campaigned in regions where they are convinced the party is not seen as a pariah anymoreOf the 23 seats BJP will contest in its ragtag alliance bosses are hopeful of winning four The biggest ally is the Pattli Makkal Katchi PMKmdasha party of Vanniarsmdashwhich is strong in certain pockets But the allocation arithmetic has not been properly nailed with both parties contesting from some weak areas A big hope is TTV Dinakaran a splinter ADMK leader and nephew of the disgraced Sasikala His breakaway party contests two seats and he is assured of a strong showing in Theni a stronghold of O Panneerselvam who ceded his home turf to contest in Ramanathapuram where BJP is strong and the Thevar bloc strongerUnion Home Minister Amit Shah during a roadshow PicAPldquoAnnamalai as a young leader is dynamic and energetic making him appealing to the youthrdquo South Chennai BJP candidate and his predecessor Tamilisai Soundararajan told midday ldquoWhile I respect previous leaders and I myself did a lot he has taken the PMrsquos message to every homerdquo Oldtimer Pon Radhakrishnan is also full of praise ldquoSomeone with his education background EngineeringMBA from prestigious institutes is a big draw with the aspirational youth of the staterdquo the Kanyakumari candidate said ldquoAnd the fact that he took VRS from IPS adds to the aura His noholds barred attacks on the DMK has won people over And his recent antidrugs crusade that caught ruling party members in international drug rings has worked well for usrdquoStrengthK Annamalai has attracted the youth and fence sittersWeaknessParty still lacks ground level organisation that can match the Dravidian partiesOpportunitiesIf voters decide NDA is returning to power they may be more inclined to vote BJP in the hope that their MP will get some work done which opposition canrsquot in terms of national projectsThreatsIf voters agree with the oppositionrsquos nuanced arguments that the BJP has institutionalized corruption eaten away at constitutional bodies and is hell bent on homegenising societyIn numbers2014 55372019 3637What will be a good resultDouble digit vote share with more than one seatA leader has to prove that he is worthyThis is the first big electoral test for former chief minister and current ADMK boss Edappadi Palanisamy after he took solo control of the party by outmaneuvering Jayalalithaarsquos aide V K Sasikala and her nephew in 2017 with the help of another former chief minister O Panneerselvam In 2021 he got the better of OPS also and took firm control of the partyEdappadi Palanisamy was chief minister of Tamil Nadu from 2017 to 2021 PicPTIAntiincumbency should help him to a certain degree as will his own growth as a mass leader He has been attracting good crowds in his campaign this time However the biggest challenge for him is to show real numbers in the Lok Sabha polls which will tighten his grip for the upcoming 2026 assembly election which will then provide him with a real chance to take power in Tamil NaduAnother question facing the party is what it will do after the final numbers are out It had an acrimonious breakup with the BJP in the run up to the Lok Sabha election Will it be in a position to work its way back into a central government if the numbers favour itDMDK party founder VijayakanthStrengthEver since he took sole control of the party EPS has grown as a leader From road shows he has graduated to pulling crowds in public meetings understands governance thanks to stints in various key ministriesWeaknessNo solid alliance partners in fact he could have given a lifeline to a future adversary by roping in the late Vijayakanthrsquos DMDKOpportunitiesThere is serious discontent with the DMK in many pockets of Tamil Nadu given the statersquos yoyo voting nature might reap the windfallThreatsThe BJP is looking to capture the prime antiDMK space and is expected to eat into the ADMK vote shareIn numbers2014 45372019 1937What will be a good resultEPS has to show his party men and the people of Tamil Nadu he is capable of securing a 30 per cent vote share if he is to have a chance in the coming Assembly election If the party secures 10 more seats it can consider it a major winWhen even a win can turn into a lossThe last five years have seen two stellar wins for the DMK under M K Stalinrsquos leadership In 2019 it blanked the ADMKBJP alliance in the national polls and in 2021 it ended a decade in the wilderness securing a comprehensive mandate in the Assembly polls after overthrowing the postJayalalithaa ADMK governmentMP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi represents Thoothukkudi constituency PicXNow it is back at the hustings battling antiincumbency of its own and a renewed twofront attack from a growing BJP and an assertive ADMK People in Chennai and certain southern districts are clearly unhappy with the governmentrsquos flood relief efforts after two deluges last year But will they punish the DMK for that in the national election or be more nuancedStrengthA strong multipronged alliance with Congress Dalits Communists and minorities Ongoing welfare programmes in the state coupled with what is in Stalinrsquos own words the alliancersquos star campaigner ndash the Congress manifesto with national welfare promises including 30 lakh central government jobs Each party in the alliance has a strong grassroots presence in its respective strongholdTamil Nadu chief minister M K StalinWeaknessCurrents of antiincumbency and unhappiness in certain pockets AntiModi sentiment is no more prevalent like 5 years ago Voter fatigue is a real possibility after national state and local bodies sweep in five yearsOpportunitiesIf people decide to throw in their lot with the national INDIA alliance DMK could reap the windfall in TNThreatsA belligerent BJP which has managed to sling corruption mud on DMK and managed to make it stick via central agenciesrsquo action A recent setback has been the arrest of a party officebearer in an international drug ringDMK leader Udhayanidhi Stalin during an election campaign rally PicPTIIn numbers2014 24372019 3337What will be a good resultNeeds above 40 per cent vote share and 30 seats to show it is still preeminent party in the stateApril 19Day polling begins