India likely to experience normal monsoon this year: Skymet

India is expected to experience a normal monsoon between June and September this year according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet which on Tuesday said that monsoon rains are expected to be 102 per cent of the longperiod average LPA of 8686 mm for the four month periodFrom June to September there will be abovenormal rains over central and western parts There will be normal rains over northern and southern parts and below normal rains over Northeast India and Eastern parts the weather forecaster saidThe Monsoon Forecast 2024 report suggests that India will experience favourable rainfall in the South West and Northwest regions of India Core monsoon rainfed areas like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive adequate rainfallHowever eastern states including Bihar Jharkhand Odisha and West Bengal face the risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months while Northeast India may experience belownormal rains in the first half of the season There will be abovenormal rains over Kerala Konka Karnataka and Goa and normal rains over central parts Skymet saidThe significant transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon said Jatin Singh MD SkymetSingh said However monsoon season may start with a risk of impairment attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phaseThe Skymet report highlights that apart from the El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole IOD also influence the monsoon The report suggests a positive IOD which is expected to complement La Nina enhancing the prospects of a better monsoonThe rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina is anticipated to disrupt the onset of the season while rainfall distribution throughout the season may be unevenGeographically the report predicts favourable rainfall in the South West and Northwest regions of India Core monsoon rainfed areas like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive adequate rainfall However eastern states including Bihar Jharkhand Odisha and West Bengal face the risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months while Northeast India may experience belownormal rains in the first half of the seasonAccording to the report the monsoon probabilities for June to September indicate a 10 per cent chance of excess rainfall a 45 per cent chance of normal rainfall with a 20 per cent chance of both abovenormal 15 per cent chance of belownormal rainfall and a 10 per cent chance of drought conditionsOn a monthly scale June is forecast to receive 95 per cent of the LPA July 105 per cent August 98 per cent and September 110 per centDespite the challenges posed by transitioning climatic conditions the report predicts a normal monsoon season this yearThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever